Australia
September 2009

Source: Australian Oilseeds Federation, September Crop Report

Canola 2009/10

In NSW, there has been very little area lost to date due to moisture stress; however the next 7-10 days will be critical for rainfall to ensure crop viability. While good falls of rain in the north have provided security for these crops, estimates of up to 40% crop loss in other areas is projected if there is no rain in the next fortnight. The traditionally drier areas of the west of the state, around Walgett, still have a good moisture profile, with 15-20mm earlier in the month around Warren also supporting a good crop there. It is in the Central West (Parkes Forbes) where lack of rain is taking its toll. For example, 8000ha in the Parkes district could result in only 1000ha harvested if there is no rain soon, with yields as low as 0.2t/ha in the crops that are harvested being combined with a low oil yield. The Central West and South West Slopes (Orange through to Wagga) are still looking favourable, although the late flowering crops may struggle. Crops in the western portion of the S.W. Slopes are at a greater risk. Sub soil moisture is recorded to a depth of only 20cm, with up to 18,000ha around Temora and 500-ha around West Wyalong at risk of being cut back by 40% for harvest. Of the remaining cropping areas, the yields will be average to good. Of the 240,000 still under cultivation at the time of this report (yielding 258,000t), no rain in the next fortnight could bring area back to 144,000 ha (160,000 t). Pest problems are moderate, with aphids present but not impacting crops, while heliothis moth numbers are beginning to build. Growers are unsure whether to invest in spraying, given the uncertain prospects for the crop. While area estimates at this stage for NSW have not changed from last month, yield has been pulled back to reflect the stress the crops are under in some areas.

In Victoria, it is a completely different story, with reports of the season being one of the best in many years. Good rains at planting time, together with consistent follow-up rain have produced very strong and viable crops. In the Mallee, the crops are looking good, with average rainfall being experienced throughout the season. Yields will be good (for the district) at 0.8-1.0 t/Ha. The Wimmera has benefited strongly from the favourable season, with crops looking exceptionally well, and currently in full flower. Yields of 1.2 – 2.0 t/ha are expected, with some peaking as high as 2.5t/Ha. The north-east/central districts have a mixed picture, with some areas looking good, and others not so good. In the western district, while it has been very wet, it is starting to dry out and the crops are in a good condition, with yields expected at 2.4t/ha- with some possible peaking as high as 4t/Ha. Overall area has not changed since last month in Victoria, though continued favourable conditions have bolstered the yield estimates.

In South Australia, the situation is little changed from last report, with a good season overall expected, and consequently estimates holding firm.

In Western Australia, the last month of winter rainfall (August) was "average" according to the BoM and is supporting the current WA crop estimate. Spring rainfall will determine final yields, so the next month or so is an important period for the WA crop, although some solid rainfall during winter has resulted in stored soil moisture in some areas that will support the current crop estimate regardless of what happens in spring. Growers are indicating no significant crop concerns at the moment in terms of crop disease or insect activity, which is positive for the current crop estimate.

Sunflower 09/10

Early plantings have commenced on the Liverpool Plains, with a good soil moisture profile present. Strong interest by growers in sunnies is being reported, with current prices favouring sunnies over sorghum at the moment. Next month’s report will provide an estimate of hectares under Sunflower for both NSW and Qld.

Global Snapshot

Global rapeseed production will exceed expectations on the back of a very strong crop in Europe, with current estimates of the season being 56.5mln t. World stocks of soybeans will continue to be below average. Lower stocks combined with the zero tolerance approach in the EU of non approved GM varieties is expected to result in soy continue to lose share of the EU crush, continuing a trend which has been underway for the last few years.

The shortage of soy in Europe has driven soy meal prices to near record highs.
Early indication of the upcoming South American soybean crop are positive, with early projections being that the area under soybean could increase by 2.5-3.0 mln ha.

Domestically, with East Coast production expected to be around 900,000 t (and demand circa 600,000 t), exportable surpluses can be expected with most of the South Australian crop and some of the Victorian crop. In Western Australia, as expected, most of the crop is expected to be exported. Consequently, domestic canola is currently trading at or near export parity pricing.

Source: Oil World September reports and member feedback.

Website: http://www.australianoilseeds.com

Published: September 14, 2009