Washington, DC, USA
September 1, 2009
As the world economy gradually stabilizes and economic prospects for 2010 improve in most parts of the world, consumption of cotton products and spinning of cotton are expected to slowly recover. Global cotton mill use is forecast to grow by 2% in 2009/10 to 23.6 million tons. The small increase in global cotton spinning expected in 2009/10 will be driven by a rebound in Asia, in particular China (Mainland), India and Pakistan. The share of Asia in world cotton mill use is forecast to increase from 76% to 77% in 2009/10.
World cotton production is expected to decrease slightly to 23.3 million tons in 2009/10. Increases in India, the United States, Pakistan and Australia are expected to be more than offset by declines in China (Mainland), Central Asia, Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico. The share of Asia in world cotton production is expected to reach almost two-thirds in 2009/10.
The expected increase in world cotton mill use should generate a small rebound in world cotton imports, to 6.8 million tons. A number of countries are expected to import more cotton in 2009/10, including China (Mainland), Bangladesh, Turkey and Pakistan. Exports from the United States are expected to decrease by 20% to 2.3 million tons, while exports from India could rebound strongly to 1.3 million tons.
Based on an expected slightly lower stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) in 2009/10, the ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 63 U.S. cents/lb in 2009/10 (the 95% confidence interval is between 55 and 73 cents/lb). This would represent a 3% increase from the 2008/09 average.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
| . |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
| . |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
| Production |
26.04 |
23.4 |
23.3 |
119.6 |
107 |
107 |
| Consumption |
26.39 |
23.1 |
23.6 |
121.2 |
106 |
108 |
| Exports |
8.36 |
6.5 |
6.8 |
38.4 |
30 |
31 |
| Ending Stocks |
12.13 |
12.4 |
12.0 |
55.7 |
57 |
55 |
| Cotlook A Index* |
72.90 |
61.20 |
63** |
72.90 |
61.20 |
63** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index (U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2009/10 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in 2007/08 (estimate), in 2008/09 (estimate), and in 2009/10 (projection), and on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2008/09 (estimate) and 2009/10 (projection). 95% confidence interval: 55 to 73 cents per pound.
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