Paris, France and Rome, Italy
August 24, 2009
Source: OECD, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Published by : OECD Publishing
View source
This 15th edition of the Agricultural Outlook edition presents the outlook for commodity markets during the 2009 to 2018 period, and analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities.
This edition of the Outlook was prepared in a period of unprecedented financial market turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. Because macroeconomic conditions are changing so quickly, this report complements the standard baseline projections with an analysis of revised short–term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. Lower GDP scenarios result in lower commodity prices, with reductions in crop and biofuel prices about one-half those for livestock products. A sensitivity analysis to highly uncertain crude oil prices shows the important links between energy and agricultural prices. The Outlook also reports on a survey of various actors in the agri-food chain in terms of the current impacts of the global economic crisis and credit market constraints.
The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food remains very high on the international political agenda. This report provides a brief overview of critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change, and suggests that agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.
Table of contents:
-Acronyms and Abbreviations
-The Outlook in Brief
Chapter 1. Overview
-World Markets at a Glance
-Major Trends in Commodity Markets
-Major Trends in Food Prices
Chapter 2. How Resilient is Agriculture to the Global Economic Crisis?
-The Deepening of the Financial and Economic Crisis
-Effects of the Financial Crisis on the Agri-Food Sector: Views form Industry Players
-Agricultural Futures Markets and Speculative Activity
Chapter 3. Can Agriculture Meet the Growing Demand for Food?
-Land and Agriculture
-Technology and Productivity
-Water and Climate Change
-Summary and Key Messages
Chapter 4. Macroeconomic and Policy Assumptions
-Business is Not as Usual
-The Main Underlying Assumptions
-Slower Population Growth in the Coming Decade
-Inflation to Remain Low Across the OECD Area
-Oil Prices Fluctuated Markedly in 2008
-Inflation to Reduce the Value of the Currency of Some Dynamic Economies in the Long Term
-Domestic Support and Trade Policy Affect Agricultural Markets
-Rapid Deterioration in the Short Term Economic Outlook
-World Trade is Tumbling
-Policy Response has been Robust
-But with Muted Effect thus Far
-What Does It All Mean for the Outlook?
-Uncertainties Abound
Chapter 5. Biofuels
-World Market Trends and Prospects
-Main Market Developments - Ethanol
-Main Market Developments - Biodiesel
-Key Issues and Uncertainties
Chapter 6. Cereals
-World Market Trends and Prospects
-Main Market Developments: Wheat and Coarse Grains
-Main Market Developments: Rice
-Key Issues and Uncertainties
Chapter 7. Oilseeds and Oilseed Products
-World Market Trends and Prospects
-Main Market Developments
-Key Issues adn Uncertainties
Chapter 8. Sugar
-World Market Trends and Prospects
-Main Market Developments
-Key Issues and Uncertainties
Chapter 9. Meat
-World Market Trends and Prospects
-Main Market Developements
-Key Issues and Uncertainties
Chapter 10. Dairy
-World Market Trends and Prospects
-Main Market Developments
-Key Issues and Uncertainties
Methodology
-The Generation of the OECD-FAO Agricutlural Outlook
-Sources and Assumptios for the Macroeconomic Projections
-The Representation of Production Costs in Aglink-Cosimo
Annex A. Assumptions Tables
Annex B. Commodity Tables
Annex C. World Prices and Projections
Annex D. Information on Food Price Changes
Glossary of Terms
Topics
Species
