Washington, DC
July 1, 2009
Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee
Outside of China (Mainland), cotton production is expected to increase by 3% to 16.0 million tons in 2009/10. Production is expected to increase in the three largest producing countries after China (Mainland): India, the United States and Pakistan. However, significant production declines are expected in Turkey, Brazil and the CFA zone. Cotton mill use outside of China (Mainland) is forecast 1% higher at 14.2 million tons in 2009/10. Both cotton imports and exports from the World-less-China (Mainland) are expected to recover slightly in 2009/10, to 5.1 million tons and 6.5 million tons, respectively.
Due to a faster increase in supply than in use, cotton stocks outside of China (Mainland) are forecast to continue to grow by 4% to a record of 9.5 million tons by the end of July 2010, accounting for two-thirds of cotton mill use in that region.
In China (Mainland), cotton production is expected to decline by 7% to 7.5 million tons in 2009/10. Cotton mill use is expected to increase by 3% to 9.3 million tons, slightly recovering from a sharp drop in 2008/09. Chinese imports are expected to increase only slightly to 1.5 million tons in 2009/10. Chinese stocks are expected to decline by 10%, to 3.4 million tons.
Based on a price forecast of 60 U.S. cents/lb for 2008/09 and an expected increase in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) in 2009/10, the ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 56 U.S. cents/lb in 2009/10 (the 95% confidence interval is between 44 and 61 cents/lb). This would represent a 7% decline from the projected 2008/09 average.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
| . |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
| . |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
| Production |
26.17 |
23.5 |
23.5 |
120.2 |
108 |
108 |
| Consumption |
26.31 |
23.0 |
23.4 |
120.9 |
106 |
108 |
| Exports |
8.36 |
6.2 |
6.5 |
38.4 |
28 |
30 |
| Ending Stocks |
12.35 |
12.9 |
12.9 |
56.7 |
59 |
59 |
| Cotlook A Index* |
72.90 |
60** |
56*** |
72.90 |
60** |
56*** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index (U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in 2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2007/08 (estimate) and 2008/09 (projection), and on the average price for the first eleven months of 2008/09. 95% confidence interval: 60 to
61 cents per pound.
*** The price projection for 2009/10 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in 2007/08 (estimate), in 2008/09 (projection), and in 2009/10 (projection), and on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2008/09 (projection) and 2009/10 (projection). 95% confidence interval: 44 to 61 cents per pound.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology
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