Denmark
May 2026
Market shifts are accelerating. A market change is coming - as we have explained in numerous customer meetings. The change, which first affected some cultivars last year, was accelerated by 2025’s busy autumn sales season. As a result, we now expect the sales season that will follow the 2026 harvest to be challenging. Below we outline the drivers behind this market shift, and our expectations for the year ahead.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk
Global geopolitical tensions continue to affect the seed trade. A potential tariff war and escalating conflict in the Middle East are pushing up energy prices, while the ongoing war in Ukraine adds to the mood of economic uncertainty.
While the outcomes of these events are unknown, their effect on costs, logistics, and availability is an everyday reality. Through our global network and close partner relationships, we continue to monitor developments closely and adapt where needed.
Please reach out to your DLF contact if you need support navigating these risks.
In a tight market, planning is critical
Over the past few years, the world’s seed producers have cut production to help lower their excessive stock levels. During 2024 and 2025, increased demand led to a steady drawdown of inventories. Although seed remained available, supply was already out of balance, which led to shortages for certain species and varieties.
This trend has continued. An early spring sales surge across much of Europe – an increase that came on the back of last autumn’s vigorous sales – has sharply accelerated stock reduction. Since we now expect the 2026 harvest to be relatively small, everyone from producer to end user will experience shortages during the coming year.
Early and careful planning are essential.
Forage: stronger demand, tighter supply
Demand for forage seed continues to rise, driven by high livestock and milk prices, and an increase in global food demand.
Climate change is accelerating demand for annual species such as Westerwold, Italian ryegrass, and hybrids. This has led to shortages – particularly for Italian ryegrass – and rising prices across much of Europe. Similar pressure is pushing stocks and prices of perennials such as cocksfoot and timothy.
After several years of limited production, stocks of forage perennial ryegrass are low. Since last autumn, demand has risen sharply across Europe, resulting in shortages for commodity and recommended varieties. Core commodity varieties, such as MATHILDE, CALIBRA, and BELIDA, are sold out, with no direct replacements available.
Legume demand remains high, but production challenges persist:
- Poor white clover harvest 2026 in New Zealand
- Poor alfalfa harvest 2025 in Europe
- Ongoing challenges in red clover production
Since availability continues to be limited, we will do our best to support customers who need our DLF Alfalfa and our crimson clover, ROKALI.
Turf: shortages return
After several years of reduced activity, the turf market has entered a new phase. Stock reductions across the supply chain, combined with a sharp rise in demand, have led to shortages. Buyers who have grown used to plentiful stocks need to know that last-minute buying is no longer an option.
With low stocks of perennial ryegrass and red fescue for both consumer and professional turf markets, procurement planning is essential. The situation is only likely to get worse. With predictions for a reduced 2026 harvest, we expect further shortages, especially for perennial ryegrass and red fescue.
For tall fescue and Kentucky bluegrass, supply and demand are better balanced, although shortages do exist at variety level.
Demand for 4turf® varieties remains high. Now that turf users have seen the benefits – stress tolerance, drought resilience, and fast germination - for themselves, 4turf® varieties have become the segment’s must-have seeds.
Grass-seed production: structural pressures increasing
The area of land devoted to grass-seed multiplication in Europe remains well below that used in 2021 and 2022. Despite agricultural input costs moderating since the start of the Ukraine war, revenues from the growing of grass seed still make grass less competitive than alternative crops.
And, once again, costs are on the rise following the conflict in the Middle East:
- Fuel, energy, and fertiliser prices are rising
- Fertiliser prices have increased by about 35% in two months
- Fertiliser availability has been restricted by disruption to the transport of urea through the Strait of Hormuz
At the same time, regulatory pressure is increasing. Next year’s Danish ban on 33 pesticides significantly raises production risks. Similar trends are expected across Europe.
Growers increasingly want more: they expect financial compensation for higher risk or support for investment in agricultural technologies, such as mechanical weeding, laser technology, and row cleaners. These technologies, which are generally less effective and more energy-intensive, require a substantial investment. In the coming years, these factors will play a decisive role in future grass-seed production and long-term supply security.
Seed prices: upward pressure building
High stock levels have driven prices down from the COVID-era peak of 2021. During the years that followed, they fell further than expected.
With declining stocks, prices have stabilised and, in some cases, begun to rise – notably for perennial ryegrass and red fescue.
Given the current shortages, and an expected 2026 harvest, further price increases are unavoidable. The question is not if, but how fast, prices will rise.
Price rises are not necessarily bad news. Growers need a greater return to restore the competitiveness of grass-seed production and enable acreage expansion in the years ahead.
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