August 25, 2010
As the global economic environment changes, so too will diets and the demand for staple foods. Researchers must assess how these will change in order to understand the long term impact of biofortification.
To do this, economists Msangi and colleagues used a global agricultural market model to simulate future demands for food and micronutrients under different scenarios. Such methods have the advantage of being able to hone in on the food sector and to evaluate country-specific scenarios over time.
In their working paper (Integrated Economic Modeling of Global and Regional Micronutrient Security) the authors find that despite urbanization and income growth associated with globalization, diets of the rural poor—who are the focus for micronutrient interventions—will continue to be based on staple foods. Biofortification will thus remain relevant to poor rural populations in the years to come, as their incomes will still be far too low to afford a more diversified diet.
The model also suggests that biofortification of cereal grains is likely to be most effective in South Asia, while targeting roots and tubers would be most effective in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Through refinements to the model, economists hope to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of micronutrient deficiency at a global level and of the underlying drivers of those trends. This can help identify potential ‘hotspots’ for nutrient deficiency and how to design better and more cost-effective interventions to deal with this problem.
Download the Working Paper:
Integrated Economic Modeling of Global and Regional Micronutrient Security
Photo: Y. Islam
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