Idaho Falls, Idaho
November 16, 2007
With temperatures rising and
greenhouse gases building, a
University of Idaho agronomist says global warming will
bring changes to Idaho agriculture--some that are much easier to
project than others.
Crops that prefer a little more heat will be planted in regions
of the state that had previously chilled them out, thereby
expanding growers' rotational choices and economic
opportunities, said Juliet Windes, Extension cereal cropping
systems agronomist in Idaho Falls.
Although Windes said "it's difficult to predict the totality of
the effects," she is concerned about potentially hotter growing
seasons and increased pest pressure and about reduced winter
snowfall leading to decreased storage water.
"Idaho industry is starting to look at the potential economic
and industrial impacts of global warming," said Windes. "I think
we need to be prepared--especially in our water priorities."
She anticipates that producers will see these changes as a
result of global warming:
- Crops that need higher
temperatures--like beans and corn--will be planted farther
east and north, in historically cooler areas where potatoes,
hay and grain have traditionally been grown.
- Crops that prefer cooler
temperatures will be planted and harvested earlier; to avoid
hot days and dry months, some acreage of winter wheat,
planted in fall, may supplant spring wheat, planted in late
spring.
- Higher average night-time
low temperatures will reduce the overall quality of potatoes
and the sugar content of sugar beets; higher average
day-time temperatures will shorten the time that grain
seedheads can fill, compromising yields.
- In southern and eastern
Idaho, growers will be able to produce a broader variety of
fruits and vegetables--as long as irrigation is available.
- Higher temperatures will
heat up--and dry out--soils earlier in the growing season
and boost the demand for irrigation and livestock water. On
the flip side, irrigation demand will decline with the
crops' earlier harvest.
- Wetter winters will favor
winter wheat and barley production, and shorter periods of
snow cover will discourage dwarf bunt and snow mold
diseases.
- Aphids and other insect
pests will be more likely to survive winters and will
reproduce earlier and faster, enhancing their ability to
carry and spread crop diseases.
- Most crop-damaging
nematodes will produce more generations in warmer soils. The
potato cyst nematode, which prefers cooler climates, may be
an exception.
- Weeds will thrive and
become increasingly competitive with crops.
- Crop diseases discouraged
by cold winters--like late blight in potato--will increase
in range and severity. Fungal diseases that can spread to
small grains may flourish in new acres of heat-loving corn.
- With weeds, insects and
disease-causing agents producing more generations during the
growing season, the chances of resistance developing to
pesticides increase. That shortens the shelf life of
currently effective chemical controls.
- Until plant geneticists
can breed pest-resistant varieties, producers will increase
their use of pesticides that still work.
According to Windes, agricultural
scientists and producers will also need to be "one step ahead"
of insect and disease pests by understanding the problems
occurring in climate zones warmer than theirs and by managing
pests in ways that reduce the development of pesticide
resistance.
"Our ability to breed crops with increased environmental
adaptation and resistance to pests is the single best strategy
for a healthy agricultural economy," Windes said. Without
science-based measures to adapt, "huge losses" to pests could
result. With them, "we may be able to negate the more harmful
agricultural effects of global warming and to maintain and
improve crop yield and diversity."
Learn more about Windes' work online at
http://www.ag.uidaho.edu/scseidaho/.
Founded in 1889, the University of Idaho is the state's
flagship higher-education institution and its principal graduate
education and research university, bringing insight and
innovation to the state, the nation and the world. University
researchers attract nearly $100 million in research grants and
contracts each year; the University of Idaho is the only
institution in the state to earn the prestigious Carnegie
Foundation ranking for high research activity. The university's
student population includes first-generation college students
and ethnically diverse scholars. Offering more than 150 degree
options in 10 colleges, the university combines the strengths of
a large university with the intimacy of small learning
communities. For information, visit
www.uidaho.edu. |
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